GBP Fundamental Outlook

Falling sales and Reduced Hiring

The growing uncertainty around Brexit and PM May's decisions have caused British companies to scale back their hiring and investment plans. What does this mean for the long term outlook in the coming months? Likely rise in unemployment, reduced spending and a weakening Great British Pound (GBP).

"British retail sales fell by their most in 17 months in March, reflecting concern among shoppers about Britain’s unresolved Brexit impasse, a leading employers group said on Wednesday." - Reuters

The Confederation of British Industry data is a survey of about 125 retail and wholesale companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current sales volume. The latest reading today showed a score of -17 with a forecast of 5. This indicates the actual level of sales in the retail and wholesale industry are way under economic forecasts. We could be in for more GBP weakness as it gets priced into the charts.

“For months, businesses have told us that they were concerned about the general outlook for the economy. It is clear to us that this concern is now closer to home,” REC Chief Executive Neil Carberry said. This was supported by mentioned that temporary jobs are likely to get slashed which would increase the unemployment rate.

What to look out for this week (29/03/2019)

A vast amount of economic data is coming out this week, all providing information on the direction of the currency. One of the major hearings being the Brexit deal. The outright result of the vote can cause unwanted volatility for traders in GBP positions, at the same time it can be very lucrative. To minimize your risk, it's best to stay out than in of these uncertain events.

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